Changing Aspirations and Outcomes in Post-16 Education

In this latest blog post, Steven McIntosh of University of Sheffield discusses CVER contributions to the recent Augar Review of Post-18 Education, and the findings that came out of that research.

CVER have been contributing new research to the recently published Augar Review of post-18 education and funding (available here).  I supplied evidence to the Augar Review commissioners on the factors that influence aspirations and outcomes of young people in post-compulsory education. More details can be found in an accompanying CVER briefing note and full details of the research are published in a DfE research report.

The work considered two cohorts of young people who took their GCSEs almost a decade apart, in 2006 and 2015 respectively, using data from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England. The aim was to see what influences young people’s aspirations and choices for their post-GCSE education, and whether such relationships have changed over time between the two cohorts. We might expect some such changes to be observed, given the policy initiatives enacted during this period, for example the tripling of university tuition fees to £9000 in 2012, and the promotion of apprenticeships with a target of 3 million new starts by the end of the decade.

Despite these policy changes, the results of our analysis (see Table 1 below) showed that following an academic path through A levels to university remained the most popular choice of young people, with around two-thirds in each cohort aspiring, at age 14, to follow this route post-GCSE. There was actually a small increase between cohorts in the proportion wanting to follow an academic route. There was also a small increase in vocational aspirations between cohorts. When aspirations were re-assessed in Year 11, just before taking GCSEs, the same patterns were observed, though the proportions aspiring to an academic route were lower than at age 14, perhaps as realism set in.

Table 1: Percentage Planning Type of Post-Compulsory Education, by Cohort and Sweep

	Sweep 1 (Year 9, Age 14)		Sweep 3 (Year 11, Age 16)
	Cohort 1	Cohort 2	Cohort 1	Cohort 2
Academic	62%	68%	55%	63%
Vocational	23%	25%	30%	29%
Neither	15%	7%	15%	7%

What people aspire to is often what they end up doing. This was the case for around three-quarters of young people in both cohorts, irrespective of route aspired to. Those who did not fulfil their aspirations, such as those who wanted to do academic A levels but in the end chose the vocational route, were more likely to have lower achievement at GCSE. But even holding prior attainment constant, individuals from a more advantaged family background were more likely to see their aspirations fulfilled.  This is shown in Table 2 below. It is important young people from all social backgrounds should be given equal opportunity to reach their aspirations.  Advice and guidance could be important here in guiding young people towards the best options for them.

Table 2: Percentage who aspired to academic route in Year 11, who follow academic route in Year 12, by family background and prior attainment

Young person’s prior attainment	Highest Parental Education Level
	No quals	Level 1/2	A Levels	Level 4	Degree
Cohort 1
7+ A*-C	85%	88%	91%	94%	95%
5-6 A*-C	56%	48%	48%	77%	70%
1-4 A*-C	*	17%	*	37%	*
Cohort 2
7+ A*-C	85%	86%	89%	89%	92%
5-6 A*-C	41%	48%	48%	49%	53%
1-4 A*-C	*	15%	13%	14%	34%

When we looked at the factors that influence such aspirations and outcomes, then in addition to family background and prior attainment, gender and ethnicity were important. Girls were more likely than boys to aspire to an academic rather than a vocational route, and the gender gap widened between the cohorts. Similarly, those from most ethnic minority groups were more likely to aspire to academic post-compulsory qualifications, holding other factors such as attainment and background constant, with the gap becoming wider for some groups (Mixed ethnicity and Bangladeshi). With respect to region, young people living in London were more likely to aspire to undertake A levels and to apply to university, with this gap increasing in the former case but narrowing in the latter case, between the two cohorts.

Focussing on vocational study, there were more young people taking Level 3 vocational qualifications amongst the more recent cohort. This was most notable amongst those with lower GCSE attainment (some A*-C GCSEs, but fewer than 5), but was actually observed at all levels of prior attainment. For example, amongst those young people with 5 or 6 GCSEs at Grades A*-C), 32% took a vocational Level 3 qualification in Year 12 in Cohort 2, compared to just 17% in Cohort 1. At the very highest level of GCSE attainment (7+ Grade A*-C GCSEs), vocational participation was lower, though even here we saw an increase between cohorts (from 6.5% to 9.5%).

As well as increased participation in vocational Level 3 qualifications in Year 12, the results also showed that members of Cohort 2 were more likely to progress from vocational Level 2 to vocational Level 3 between Years 12 and 13, compared to the earlier cohort. 47% of Cohort 2 members initially learning at vocational Level 2 progressed to vocational Level 3 in Year 13, compared to 30% in Cohort 1.

Looking at types of vocational qualifications, there has been a clear shift between cohorts towards BTEC qualifications, and away from NVQs, particularly at Level 2. BTEC qualifications were least popular amongst whites and people outside London, particularly in the east of the country from the North-East through Yorkshire to East Anglia. Amongst those to have a chosen the vocational route, there was also some evidence that apprenticeships were becoming more popular, though this was mainly just at Level 2. For those progressing straight to Level 3 after GCSEs, Advanced (Level 3) Apprenticeships were rarely taken, with a small increase in such participation between cohorts. Nevertheless, there is potential for more growth in this area, with more young people in Cohort 2 reporting that they discussed the possibility of doing an apprenticeship at age 15 at school or with family and friends, particularly amongst those who did not go on to apply to university. In Cohort 1, 28% of those who did not go on to apply to university had talked to someone about apprenticeships, compared to just 10% of those who did go on to apply. In Cohort 2, these numbers increased to 34% and 20% respectively.

Finally, another positive for vocational education was that there was only limited evidence of ‘churn’ (cycling between low level learning programmes and periods of low-skilled employment or unemployment) amongst low level vocational learners in the two cohorts. A majority of young people starting a vocational course in Year 12 remained in education throughout the whole of that year.

In summary, the academic route remains the dominant route for 16-18 year olds, who show a preference for following A levels and then university. Nevertheless, there are signs of development of vocational education for this age group, with more interest in apprenticeships, and more learning at vocational Level 3, including increased rates of progression from lower vocational levels. The challenge remains to make such routes of broader appeal and to ensure that coming from a disadvantaged background is not a barrier to realising aspirations.